On Wednesday, the price of crude oil plunged on world markets for the second day in a row. The BEARS were beginning to assert their control, driving the price done into the low $90's per barrel. Technically, the chart pattern suggested a downtrend that could take prices into the low $80's to high $70's per barrel..........Oh and then last night an explosion was reported in the Endbridge pipeline that brings crude oil down from Edmonton Canada, thru Minnesota and into the Midwest.
In Chicago, we were hearing reports of this on our news radio stations as early as 5:00 AM.
BIG problems ahead they said. Video of the event on TV showed a fire at night, calculated to subliminally suggest a MAJOR disruption in oil supplies, just as the winter heating season begins. Energy prices were likely to SOAR.
CWI didn't buy it.
Home video of a little bonfire we had in our backyard to burn some leaves a few weeks ago, looked AWESOME, because we shot it night. It was mesmerizing to watch on our TV (once I remembered how to hook our camcorder up to the darn thing!) So much so, the next day we shot some more video, at high noon, of an even bigger bonfire. And guess what....no big deal.....BORING.
CWI thinks this early morning Enbridge Pipeline report, complete with video of a night time fire that looked huge but probably wasn't, was calculated to test the resolve of the BEARS, to give them pause as they prepared to sell the market again Thursday.
And guess what, like the CWI, the trader boys didn't buy this head fake either. Initially crude futures were up over $4 per barrel. BY 7:00 AM CST the gain was less than $2 per barrel. Interestingly, a oil industry talking head was dispatched to do a 45 second interview on CNBC and he did all he could to say "FEAR FEAR FEAR!! Later, CNBC reported that the explosion happened on a pipeline that was ALREADY OFFLINE for maintenance, and the actually supply disruption might be minimal.
It was a nice try, but it only created some very temporary strength that traders could sell into
Don't forget, OPEC meets next week.....we might hear some rumours about production cuts and a repeat of this whole FEAR scenario.
Don't believe it. Oil is going lower, and so will gasoline prices.
Thursday, November 29, 2007
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